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Aug.19
10:06 AM ET
Tuesday, 19 Aug 2008
Discounters Rule Retail; Stocks' Uptrend Problem

The trend in retail continues, with discounters continuing to outperform department stores: Home Depot [HD  Loading...      ()   ] and Target [TGT  Loading...      ()   ] beating, Saks [SKS  Loading...      ()   ] on the light side.

Biggest problem for stocks is that we are once again on the verge of breaking the uptrend from the July lows.

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Housing starts at 965,000 annual units was the slowest since 1991; building permits were well below expectations at 937,000. Remember, at the height of the market a couple of years ago, there were 2.2 MILLION permits issued. While this sounds like bad news, the truth is we need to see a string of really poor numbers like these if we have any hope of working off the high inventory levels.

It's tough to make excuses for the shockingly high PPI number: up 1.2 percent, twice the expectations, and up 0.7 percent on core (ex-food and energy), three times the expectation of a gain of 0.2 percent.

Year over year, headline is now up 9.8 percent, the largest gain since June 1981.

Bears are trying the same trick they used with CPI: saying that with commodities down, this is a backward-looking number. Unfortunately, prices seem to be increasing right across the board, and corporations are clearly indicating that they plan to keep raising prices.


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